At 9:30 am on 28th November 2024, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the latest net migration figures. Covering the 12 months to June 2024, the report revealed that net migration to the UK stood at 728,000, significantly higher than forecast.
In addition to the significant numbers for 2024, the report also revised net migration numbers for the previous year, which increased from an estimated 740,000 to 906,000. This substantial revision to the 2023 numbers meant that net migration in 2024 technically fell year on year by 20%.
Given the scale of the numbers, immigration policy is likely to be an issue that will be hotly debated in government and the right-wing media over the coming weeks. While it is evident that the UK requires a progressive and open immigration policy to support the economy’s needs and the care of an ageing population, these numbers are proving too much to stomach for political parties on either end of the spectrum.
Our article below summarises the main takeaways from the report and provides First Migrations expert and unique view of the latest numbers. You can also read the ONS report for yourself.
Since 2021, migration to the UK has reached an unprecedented level. Despite weak economic growth, Brexit, and increasing costs for migrants, the UK (and London in particular) remains an attractive destination.
The numbers over recent years have been influenced to an extent by several one-off factors, including:
Despite these one-off factors, it’s clear that higher immigration is here to stay unless further changes are made to the immigration system. The sheer number of student and work visas means that net migration numbers will continue to be in the hundreds of thousands rather than tens of thousands.
Within the numbers, we can see that gross migration (all arrivals) to the UK stood at 1.2 million, of which 86% (1,034,000) were non-EU migrants. A further 116,000 EU nationals came to the UK, while 58,000 Britains returned to the country from overseas.
Within this non-EU population, migrants came to the UK for the following reasons:
While humanitarian and asylum migrants tend to grab the headlines, the bulk of migrants are coming to the UK to work and study. Not only do these migrants provide skills that the UK desperately needs, they also help to fund Britain’s world-class education system. Cuts in either of these areas will have significant consequences.
While Britain as a whole remains an attractive destination, it is particularly appealing for certain nationalities. The existence of established communities within Britain makes migration far more appealing, attractive, and easy for some nationalities. These benefits are reflected in the most populous nationalities coming to the UK, each of which already has a strong, established community.
Based on nationality, the top five non-EU+ countries for long-term immigration to the UK in the year ending June 2024 were:
The headline numbers suggest that changes to the immigration system are likely to be made. However, if you scratch below the surface, you’ll see a number of changes that have already been made and have just started to feed through. These include:
Many of these changes have only just begun to feed through to the headline figure. The current government will likely see what impact these changes have before making wholesale changes. Considering student dependants accounted for 80,000 migrants and work dependants accounted for 233,000 migrants, there’s significant scope for reduction in these numbers. Whatever the outcome, undoubtedly, 2023 and 2024 are likely to mark the peak years for net migration to the UK.
First Migration has always supported an equitable immigration policy that is fair to migrants, families, businesses and the sustainability of services and communities in the UK. Unsustainable net migration isn’t in anyone’s interest, and the numbers for the past 2 years are not sustainable in the medium or long term.
It’s essential for the government to set out an immigration policy that clearly identifies the skills the UK needs and also respects the right to family life. Previous attempts at controlling migration through inflation-busting increases in application fees or adding further surcharges have failed. These policies, along with the increased level of earnings for family visas, have compromised the integrity of the system and penalised the lowest earners in our societies.
The changes implemented over the past two years are likely to materially impact the number of dependants coming to the UK under student and work categories. In conjunction with the changes to family visas, this will likely result in a net migration falling by several hundred thousand. In addition, the impact of one-off factors is likely to unwind, resulting in further falls.
We therefore believe the new Labour Government shouldn’t be seeking wholesale changes to the current system. The Skilled Worker category should be closely monitored, and job roles should be updated regularly to ensure only the most essential skills are supported. The immigration system needs a scalpel and not a sledgehammer to best support the interests of migrants, the government and the people of Great Britain.
